AFC South Fantasy Preview

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts continue to defy all odds and stay atop that AFC South; a division that might be as tough as any in football. Over the past few years, there have usually been at least 2 or 3 guys that get taken in, or just outside of the first round. This year it is no different.

QB - Peyton Manning
Manning continues to have Pro Bowl season, after Pro Bowl season, after Pro Bowl season. He racked up over 4,000 yards for the 8th time in the last 9 seasons, and has never thrown under 25 TD passes in his entire 10 year career. Manning is as safe as they come when picking a QB, and has never missed a single game in his career. Last year he only had 3 games in which his QB rating was under 80; one of them, the 6 INT game against San Diego. He had 8 games, though, with a rating of 100 or higher.

Manning is my 4th rated quarterback this year. I wouldn’t end up picking him, for the sole reason of value. If you want Manning, you’ll have to get him in the very early 2nd round, and that’s if he’s still there. I would pass on him, and take a Carson Palmer, or Big Ben; just as good fantasy players, but ones that you can get in the 3rd-4th rounds.

RB - Joseph Addai
Addai is my 6th rated RB this year, but as of late, I have been regretting putting him so low. Addai has peaked 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, running for 1,072 yards and 12 TDs last season, in 15 games. I feel like Addai is set for a break out year though. Last year, I think the departure of Dominic Rhodes hurt him, and was the main reason he only had the number of yards that he did. Addai was without a backup who could come in and keep him fresh throughout the course of a game. This year, Rhodes is back, and Addai should be healthier, and fresher this season, then last.

Addai has been a top 5 or 6 pick in most league’s recently, and he would be a good choice if you did have a pick in that range.

WR - Reggie Wayne
When you didn’t think Wayne could be anymore productive, he was. Wayne racked up a career best 1,510 yards, which was tops in the NFL, and 10 TDs. He was as productive and consistent as they come, only getting less then 60 yards receiving twice last season. Wayne became Manning’s favorite target after Harrison went down to an injury, and should have the same type of role this year.

The 29 year old is in his prime, and will probably have very similar numbers, maybe better, this upcoming season. Wayne is my 6th rated WR, but should probably be higher. He is a great pick in the mid to late 2nd round, although I have seen him slide to as far as the mid 3rd round in some leagues.

WR - Marvin Harrison
Harrison is not a very popular fantasy player, and let me just start off by saying that I would stay away from the future Hall of Famer. Harrison is entering his 13th NFL season, and will turn 36 before the regular season begins. Add that to the distractions that have been going on this offseason, and the fact that he is coming off a rather serious injury which sidelined him for 11 games last season.

Harrison seems to have been already replaced by second year man out of Ohio St., Anthony Gonzalez, who filled in nicely for Harrison last season. The 8 time Pro Bowler is nearing the end of his career, and while I have all the respect in the World for one of the best WRs to play in this game, I would, again, stay away from Harrison this year.

WR - Anthony Gonzalez
Gonzalez, to put it bluntly, was forced into a starting role that he was probably not ready for, in Week 6 of last season. Gonzalez, in 13 games, was a pleasant surprise for many Colt fans out there, getting over 500 yards receiving and 3 TDs. He had 2 games in which he had no catches though; but those kinds of performances are to be expected from a rookie. Gonzalez will likely be the Colt’s number 2 WR sooner or later this season, but unless you are in a big 16 team league, and are looking for depth at WR, I wouldn’t go drafting the former Ohio St. stud. On this Indy team though, being the number 2 WR could very well mean being the 4th target, behind guys like Clark and Addai. Speaking of Dallas Clark…

TE - Dallas Clark
Clark is entering his 6th NFL season and continues to improve every year, having career bests in yards, TDs, and receptions in 07, getting 616 yards and 11 scores on 58 receptions. Versatility is the name of the game for Dallas Clark, who makes DC’s around the league go nuts when trying to find a scheme to contain this guy. Clark has lined up as a WR as many times as a TE, and at times, has lined up in the backfield. Clark has great hands, and speed for a TE, and runs very crisp routes, something that seems to be a given coming out of Indy receivers.

Clark is my 4th rated TE this season, and is a great pick in the mid rounds of your draft. The only concern for Clark is that he has not had a 16 game season in his first 5 years in the league. But, then again, he has only missed more then one game twice.

Defensive Unit
The Colt defense has been the most over-achieving unit in all of football over the past couple of years, in my opinion. It’s amazing what a difference Bob Sanders can make. The Colt’s two starting corners last season had never had starting experience, and were each only in their 3rd year in the NFL. Their linebacking core is nothing to write home about, their two DTs are mediocre at best, and they were without Dwight Freeney for nearly half the season last year. Yet, despite all of this, they were the 3rd best defense in the NFL a year ago, ranking 2nd against the pass and managed to be in the top half of the league against the run.

The thing that makes them so great though, in my opinion, is speed, which forces the opposing running game to the inside, and does not allow for many short passes, and Bob Sander’s great ability to help out on run defense. Hopefully Freeney and Mathis will stay healthy this season. If they do, the Colts should generate plenty of sacks. The Colts are a good option heading into the later rounds of your draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Look out Indy! The Jags are here to fight, and they’re here to stay! The Jaguars have one of the most talented teams in the NFL, with as stout a defense as they come, and an offense ran by one of the game’s best managers in David Garrard; add that to the best 1-2 tandem in the AFC, and you have what I like to call a serious contender. The Jags also improved in the off season by giving Garrard some more targets to throw to. Their starting 2 wideouts from the beginning of last season, are likely to be the number 3 and 4 guys. Now the Jags have a few fantasy options, and so let’s get started.

QB - David Garrard
Garrard threw his first INT in Week 13 of last season, and only 3 over the course of the entire season. Even more impressive then that, he did not have a single game in which he had a QB rating of under 80. All this with, at best, an average core of WRs. Garrard was a very pleasant surprise for all Jag fans, and many fantasy owners who were able to snag him before everyone realized what was going on.

Garrard will not exactly rack up 4,000 yards, and 35 TDs, but he is as consistent as they come, and is a great late round option as a back up. Your starting QBs bye week doesn’t have to be a bad week.

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew
Drew was maybe the surprise of the 2006 season, when he stormed into the league with 941 rushing yards, and 13 TDs, adding over 400 receiving yards and 2 more scores on 46 receptions. Drew did not repeat the success he had in his rookie year last season, however, he did still have a good season, going for a combined 1,175 yards and 9 TDs.

Drew is a great mid to late round pick up, and should be considered as a starter. While Fred Taylor is coming off of his first Pro Bowl season, he isn’t getting any younger, and the Jags should be looking to get Jones-Drew even more involved this year.

RB - Fred Taylor
Taylor, as just mentioned, is coming off of his first career, Pro Bowl appearance. It was a well deserved honor for the probable, future HOF’er. Taylor ran for over 1200 yards last season to go along with 5 TDs, on just 223 carries; a 5.4 ypc average. The big 6′1, 32 year old back can defintely still play, but I wouldn’t be expecting those numbers to be repeated this year. I think that Jones-Drew will drag a little bit more off the shoulders of Taylor. Taylor is still a very good mid-late round option, and is a great back up on your squad.

WR - Jerry Porter
With obviously a mess of a quarterback situation out in Oakland, Jerry Porter was still able to grab 6 TDs and 705 yards. Now, while those might not be stellar fantasy numbers, it does show me that he still has some left in the tank, and with some consistent QB play, which he obviously has now in Jacksonville, he can still have a decent fantasy season.

Porter will be turning 30 later on this month, but he has never had over 1,000 yards or 10 TDs in a single season, in his entire career; a stat that I was wide-eyed looking at. Porter, according to him, is in as good form as he’s ever been in, and, I believe, could finally have that 1,000 yard season. If he stays away from the injury bug, Porter wouldn’t be a bad late round pick up at all, if you can get him there.

WR - Troy Williamson
Williamson will be one of 3 or 4 guys to be competing for that number two spot behind Porter. Williamson is an under-achieving, and considered by most, if not all, a complete bust, former first round draft pick of the Vikings back in 2005. The speedy wideout has never reached 500 receiving yards in a season, nor more then 2 TDs. Williamson has always had problems catching the football, and is known for all of his dropped passes.

The name of the Jaguars passing game is possession. There is no evidence to support anything that would say that Williamson can be a part of this style of play, and be effective; therefore, I would stay away from Williamson, even though he is the current favorite to become the number 2 WR. Instead, if you were going for one of these Jag wideouts, I would take a hard look at a guy like Dennis Northcutt, or Reggie Williams.

TE - Marcedes Lewis
Lewis had a mediocre at best rookie season, but doubled his numbers in almost every category last season, going for nearly 400 yards, and2 scores. While neither his rookie season nor his second year were big time fantasy seasons, he is only entering his 3rd year, and with the lack of talent at WR, Garrard should be looking for his 6′6 TE often. If you’re in a big 16 team, type of league, and are looking for a back up TE, Lewis wouldn’t be a bad option in the later rounds of your draft.

Defensive Unit
The Jaguar’s defense has been known for those two run stuffers in the middle, Marcus Stroud, and John Henderson. Stroud is now in Buffalo, and that could very well be a big loss for last year’s number 11 ranked run D in the NFL. The Jaguars pass rush, non the less, should be getting a bit of a boost from Jacksonville’s first two draft picks, Derrick Harvey, and Quentin Groves.

The Jags are my 12th rated defense, and wouldn’t be a terrible late round option. There are better fantasy options out there, but remember that they also have the potential to go all the way on kick and punt returns, which does count obviously, along with defensive stats.

Tennessee Titans

Let me start off by saying one thing: The Titans are better in real life then in a fantasy world. The Titans are one of those teams that doesn’t usually have any one person that puts up crazy numbers, doesn’t have a Pro Bowler, (yet), at any skill position, they just know how to win football games. That’s signature of the Titans, and of their quarterback…

QB - Vince Young
The former number 3 overall pick has thrown 9 more INTs then TDs in his first two season combined, but he knows how to win games. Unfortunately, wins doesn’t count as a stat in fantasy football. Now, to his credit, he has probably had the worst core of WRs in the NFL. Young did get a little bit of help in this past off season, when the Titans acquired big TE ALge Crumpler.

While, in the future, Young might become a Pro Bowl type QB, for now, he shouldn’t exactly be on your list of top ten QBs heading into the draft. Maybe as back up option it would be ok to get him in the later rounds, but nothing higher or more than that.

RB - LenDale White
Who would have thought 2 years ago, that Bush’s back-up running back at USC, would end up having the better first couple of seasons, by far? Not me, and probably nor you. White rushed for over 11 hundred yards last seasonn to go with 7 TDs on 303 carries. White won’t get the same amount of carries this season if Chris Henry can stay healthy, but he is still a good fantasy back, good enough to be your number 3, in my opinion, and he should be there in the mid rounds.

WR - All (general)
The Titans have arguably the worst WR core in football right now, but Roydell Williams and Justin Gage did play much better then expected, and then capable, in my opinion at least. Those two guys did over achieve, and each of them did have over 700 receiving yards. I don’t know if I could argue taking them in the very late rounds, especially in a very big league.

TE - Alge Crumpler
Crumpler spent his first 7 years in the NFL with Atlanta, and might have been Michael Vick’s favorite target throughout his time there. From 2004 to 06, Crumpler averaged grabbing 810 yards, and 6 scores. Last year, his numbers did dip a bit, but he did miss 2 games due to injury, and also had QBs like Joey Harrington and Chris Redman throwing him the football. He should have a fairly successful season in his new home in Tennessee, and would be a decent late round pick. In most drafts, he’ll go in between the 12th, and 14th rounds.

Defensive Unit
Albert Haynesworth. Albert Haynesworth. Albert Haynesworth. He, is, has been, and will be, the reason the Titans are dominant, or to put it bluntly, flat out stink on D. Last year, with Haynesworth, the Titans allowed 15.4 ppg, and were 10-3. Without him, they allowed 32.3 ppg, and were 0-3.

Haynesworth should be playing motivated this year because in previous years he has proven to be a bit inconsistent, and he is looking for a hefty, long term contract; whether that be from the Titans, or from another team via free agency, I don’t know. Either way, Haynesworth should be a dominant force in the middle, and the Titans should be one of the better defenses in the National Football League. This unit is my 10th ranked defense, but to be honest, I’m regretting putting them that low. If Haynesworth stays healthy, you can’t go wrong with this pick.

Houston Texans

The Texans are the NFL’s newest franchise, and were established in 2002. They didn’t exactly get started on the right foot when they used their first overall pick to grab David Carr, obviously one of the bigger busts in the last couple of decades. I have heard some people say that they should have picked Joey Harrington instead, because the only reason he was a bust was because of all the pressure put on his laps in Detroit, and would not have had the same type of pressure on Houston. Let me tell you, no QB, not Carr, not Harrington, not Peyton Manning, would have been successful behind that offensive line. But, we’re talking about this year’s fantasy studs, and this years duds, not their history…

QB - Matt Schaub
Schaub, through the first 6 weeks of the season, was one of the better QBs in fantasy football, getting at least 225 yards in each of those performances Schaub then came back from an injury in Week 11 and threw for over 500 yards in those two games and 4 TDs. He then got hurt again in Week 13 and missed the remainder of the season.

Schaub has great targets in Andre Johnson, Andre Davis, Kevin Walter, and his TE Owen Daniels. If he is able to stay healthy, he should have a great year, and me, personally, have been trying to get him in the later rounds as a back up QB in every league I can. I suggest you try and do the same; you may end up starting him on a weekly basis.

RB - Ahman Green
Green played in a total of 6 games (including Week 3 in which he got hurt early on), and struggled in each of them. Green did not even reach 80 yards in any of those games and only had 2 TDs in total. Green’s best years are way behind him, and I wouldn’t suggest getting the 31 year old back; especially now since the Texans are looking more like a pass heavy type of team. Green will be drafted in almost every league, just hopefully not by you.

WR - Andre Johnson
Johnson had turned into, at least in my opinion, the best WR in football. Now, I know, almost every one of you are calling me crazy, but don’t start throwing food at your desktop just yet. Johnson is one of the, if not the, most talented and gifted wideout in all of football. He’s a big target at 6′3, 220 pounds, but has the speed to beat out almost any corner in the NFL one on one, down the sideline.

In just 9 games last season, Johnson had 851 yards, and 8 TDs; had he played in all 16 games, that would have been a whopping 1532 receiving yards and 14 scores. Those numbers would be good enough for 1st in the entire NFL in yards, and 4th in scores. In terms of fantasy points, he was on pace to having a better year then Terrell Owens (not by just a little either); that’s second, only behind, obviously, Randy Moss.

Johnson is my number 2 rated WR, only behind Moss, and I would not waste any time getting him. If you feel like he won’t be there the next time you’re up to bat, get him. There is no such thing as a reach when taking this guy. He is the real deal, the next big thing in the NFL, don’t ruin your chance, and get him. You’ll regret it if you don’t.

WR - Andre Davis
Davis filled in nicely for Johnson while he was hurt, and put up decent fantasy numbers. I’m sure that the Texans are planning on keeping Johnson healthy though. Davis is a big time deep ball threat, and Scaub can definitely air it out. I wouldn’t mind you taking a chance on this guy if he’s still there, (which he should be), in the later rounds, but I wouldn’t make plans on drafting him. If Johnson does get hurt, picking him up in FA might not be a bad idea if he is one.

WR - Kevin Walter
Walter had a pretty decent fantasy year last season, racking up 800 yards and 4 TDs. Walter, like Davis, was most effective when Johnson got hurt. The 26 year old Walter, is entering his 6th year in the NFL, and is also entering his prime. He’s the Texans number two WR, and in a pass happy offense like Houston is running, he should be putting up similar numebrs this year, even if Johnson stays completely healthy. This guy wouldn’t be a bad mid-late round pick, but, again, like I said about Davis, I wouldn’t make plans on drafting him.

TE - Owen Daniels
The young TE out of Wisconsin made some noise last year, going for 768 receiving yards and 3 scores. The one thing that I like a lot about him though is that he is extremely consistent; the making for a great back up on your team. Daniels is ranked pretty highly this year, and in order to draft him, you may have to get him in the mid rounds, not exactly the time in the draft to be worrying about getting a back up TE.

If he is there in the later rounds, which he very well could be in a small 10 or 12 team league, then I would get him as a back up option. He is a fairly good fantasy TE, but he’s no Antonio Gates.

Defensive Unit
NFL.com/CBS sportsline, recently made a list, written by Pete Prisco, on the top 50 NFL players; currently speaking. He put Texan’s DE Mario Williams as his top rated defensive lineman, second rated defensive player, and put him at number 6. Now, while everybody except obviously Pete Prisco, knows that Williams is no top ten NFL player, he is still a very good DE, and one of the better pass rushers in the league.

Houston has some great young talent on defense that is only going to get better and better, and have a very good pass rush with guys like Williams, and Amobi Okoye along the defensive line. DeMeco Ryans has turned into one of the better MLBs in the NFL, and put him alongside of OLB Morlon Greenwood, and rookie Xavier Adibi, and you have a pretty good LB core that will help greatly in stopping the run.

Houston did allow 24 ppg, and while in the future it might be one of the better units in the league, as of now, I would stay away from the bunch.

That was my AFC South Fantasy Preview, I hope you’ve enjoyed! One of our other writers, AJ, should have his AFC East Preview done soon, I’m sure you’ll enjoy that as well!